While China, with its projected economic growth at 8%, is the first to get out of the recession, the US is still struggling due to the heavy debt it will be caring in the next decade. Officially, the national debt is US$12trillion but many have mentioned that the real national debt has reached US$73 trillion.

Gerald Celente forecast that the great recession that the US is in will last longer than many other economic analyst are stating. He even said that this will be the greatest depression which will be a signal like the crash of the Berlin Wall, that the economic power has once again shifted to another part of the world. Every economic melt down leads to a shift of economic power. The last recession the world was in, back in 1929, the economic power shifted from Europe to the US. Today’s depression cause it to shift again, but this time from the US to Asia.

Because the shift has begun, there will be great economic changes in the US and here are the top 10 trends of what you can expect in the next decade in America, starting in 2010:

1. High Taxes, Lower Social Security Benefits.

The federal debt which in reality has reached $73 trillion, will force the Federal Government to raise taxes as well as lower their spending. The first damaging hit to Americans will be the Social Security benefits. Expect this to lower at some point in your long-term future. It is up to you whether you want to save your family’s financial future or not. But it is now the time for you to have as much cash to be able to go through rougher times. Leave your credit cards and get out of debt. Start saving money and invest in gold.

2. The value of the US$ will continue to decline.

Because of the $73 trillion national debt, foreign investors suspect that the federal government is deliberately letting the dollar decline. The advantage for the US government is that the relative value of its debt will be less. Consequently, investors are now diversifying their portfolios with other currency such as the Euro. Just as private sectors are backing up their asset with gold, China is planning to cause gold price to return back below $1,000 to then buy 10,000 kg of gold from the IMF. With all this and foreign investors switching to other currencies, the US import prices will rise, the export prices will lower and the overall economic growth will be spurred.

3. Economic uncertainty will stay.

It will be required by businesses to have people on board who are able to forecast their entire business every month. A lot of things will happen really fast and unexpected. They will lose key customers or suppliers to bankruptcy,  bank will refuse to give loans, demands and sales will decrease. In order to survive, businesses will have to be able to forecast their future monthly and accurately in this uncertain economy.

4. The employment strategy will change.

Just as individuals are urged to save their cash, business will too. Those who can keep their overhead cost low, remain flexible in the uncertain economy and keep from paying higher health care benefits, will remain in business. In order to do these, businesses will only hire freelance or part time workers. Some will even outsource from other countries in Asia or Eastern Europe as employment cost will be cheaper compared to hiring Americans.

5. The world’s best customer will drag businesses down.

Because of the credit bubble, both the government and the American consumers are maxed out. They are all so deep in debt that neither of them will be buying much from China or other exporters. Countries who were relying partly from the US spending, will now have to develop their own consumer-based economy. However, countries who almost completely 100% relies on the US spending, will be dragged down even worse if they are not able to find a replacement for the world’s best customer. In the US, American businesses will have to learn how to supply needs of emerging markets outside the US.

6. Real estate, property and mortgage businesses will stay flat.

There are 8 months of unsold homes, and 15 months of “shadow inventory” – homes headed for the foreclosure pipeline. There are hundreds of thousands in the foreclosure list and a million more will be added into the list in the next year. Housing prices will not recover for the next few years based on this. Real estate businesses that have a better chance to survive are the ones who offer housing for low-income people. People will no longer decide where to live based on best investment option. Rather they will chose their homes based on what they like and the best deal that comes along. Because people will turn to lower income houses, their homes will no longer be used to get a second mortgage to pay for homes and furniture. This will keep consumer spending low for years to come.

7. More and more people will retire late.

Because of the recession more and more people will have to delay retirement in order to keep working as long as they can.

8. China replaces US as the world’s largest economy

Currently the US and EU’s economy grow at 3% while China’s economy is at 9%. If this continues to happen, in 2019, China will be the world’s largest economy, replacing the US. Here, the shift of economic power will then happen.

9. More leadership from emerging market countries will appear

The group of the leaders of the world’s developed economies, G-7, was forever changed by the group called G-20. This group are comprised not only by the world’s developed economies but includes also recession-resistant countries such as Brazil, China, India, Malaysia and Indonesia. The reason why these countries did not shake in the credit crunch is because their banks were more regulated. In the next decade, you will see more leadership coming from emerging market countries.

10. Less war

War is seriously expensive. the US have been spending $600 – $700 billion each year to fund their war between 2006-2008. This year the US spending on war went down to $500 billion. Although I personally doubt that due to the national debt, the US will no longer go out and fight other countries, the US really can’t afford to wage war anymore. If it will not trigger world peace, at least there will be “less war”.

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